Oct 28, 2008

A Week To Go

I have always loved skylights. This one is at the Belliagio Hotel in Las Vegas. Well, the news on the doggie lawsuit front is minimal. I spoke to one of the old ladies who had moved into the lead as my chief suspects. You may recall that they have about 12 dogs and walk them past our house every morning. She said it wasn't them and that she had "enough balls" to tell me to my face if she had a problem with Lacey. Oh, well. A week to go until the election and some people are still wondering about my iron-clad guarantee of an Obama win, and probably a big one. The Gallup poll for today indicates a two percentage point lead for Obama. This is within the poll's margin of error, meaning that McCain could be ahead, at least theoretically. But it really doesn't matter, as you may recall from 2000. The guy with the most popular votes doesn't always win. Andrew Jackson, Samuel Tilden and Grover Cleveland also got more popular votes than the guys they lost to. Here's how I see it. At the moment Obama has 259 solid electoral votes and McCain has 127. By solid, I mean that they lead in those states by at least 10 percentage points in the public polling. Thirteen states are too close to call either way. Obama needs to add 11 more electoral votes to become president. McCain needs to find 143. If Obama carries Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Georgia, Missouri or Indiana, he wins. Just one of those states. McCain has to pretty much sweep everything left in play. Obama has huge leads in the 3 West Coast states, California, Oregon and Washington. He is solidly in the lead in the upper Midwest, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Illinois. Plus he is a lock in all the East from Pennsylvania and New Jersey north to Maine. Is there any reason to think that any of those states would go for McCain? No way, they are Democrat bastions. So if you are still having doubts, relax. My prediction is Obama wins the popular vote 5o% to 47%, with 3% going to the fringe. Obama wins the electoral college vote 363-175. Things in this blog represented to be fact, may or may not actually be true. The writer is frequently wrong, sometimes just full of it, but always judgmental and cranky

13 comments:

Megan said...

Hm. Do I want to bet the over or the under?

Annie Ha said...

I hope you're right, man. I so hope it.

Reya Mellicker said...

I just knew that if I read your blog today, I would feel reassured, whether or not it was about the election.

THANK YOU oh Voice of Reason. THANK YOU!!

Terri@SteelMagnolia said...

I will puke if Obama is the President...

The most secretive candidate ever... and I could go on an on...

but then again.. I don't watch main stream media...

if I watched MSM.. I'd probably vote for the Messiah too..

he is spooky spooky spooky.

The world will see.

Nan Patience said...

Somebody's been doing their homework!

I hope you're right.

I wonder if there's ever been another example in history of a race that has concentrated so much on "batteground" states such that the electoral winnings were dramatically in favor of one candidate while the popular vote was so close.

Karen said...

Hope you're right, Merle...

Merle Sneed said...

Nan..probably the only election that would qualify would be Nixon/Humphrey 1968. They both got nearly the same popular vote, but Nixon carried all the big states, except New York and Texaas, Nixon won the electoral college vote in a landslide.

Kurt said...

Landslide McCain. You heard it here first.

Flawed And Disorderly said...

Noooooooooooo....please let me hold onto my hope that McCain has a chance! I'm hoping McCain voters will sneak out and vote when no one is looking!!! And that it will count for something! :D

Nan Patience said...

Nixon?

Ugh.

Steve said...

As man others have said, Merle, I hope you're right.

bella rum said...

I'm in a battleground state that hasn't gone to the Democrats since 1960, but it looks like they will take it this year.

bitchlet said...

I don't know what to think, but I would like to believe you.